Production Capability Maturity Model: How to Keep Your Upstream Oil and Gas Operations Continually Running in an Optimized State

07/05/2016
Production Capability Maturity Model: How to Keep Your Upstream Oil and Gas Operations Continually Running in an Optimized State

Armed with probabilistic production forecasts, teams can create rules that trigger alarms and tasks when predefined events occur

This is the last in a five-part series about the Production Capability Maturity Model for upstream oil and gas companies. This blog covers the how to’s of keeping your operations optimized at all times.

Have you ever walked into your place of work, unshouldered your bag, sat down in your chair, leaned back, and thought to yourself, “Man, I hope my team and I don’t meet our goals this quarter”? Or, “I hope we don’t leverage the awesome information that Tom showed us in last Tuesday’s meeting, which would, without a doubt, help us achieve better results”? Or, “I hope our board of directors is OK with average this year”?

Of course not. (At least I hope not).

Because continually learning, improving, and working at the highest level possible is what lands you the promotion and has your executives giving you high fives when you get into the office each morning.

And for upstream oil and gas companies, continually learning, improving, and operating at the highest level possible is what enables them to get the most value out of each and every one of their assets.

That’s what the Optimized level, the last stage in the Production Capability Maturity Model, is all about – using accurate data to predict what your company’s future performance should look like and making well-informed decisions to keep your operations continually running in an optimized state.

Production Capability Maturity Model

Using accurate data to predict what your company’s future performance should look like and making well-informed decisions to keep your operations continually running in an optimized state. Great. But how does an upstream company go about doing that?

It all starts with forecasting what each of your wells should produce. Ideally, these production forecasts should be automated, probabilistic, and unbiased. Let’s unpack these concepts one by one.

Automated. When production forecasts are generated in an automated fashion, a company’s engineers can focus on performing engineering-intensive, value-added activities for the business, like uncovering the reason(s) why a well went down, optimizing production, and searching for reserves.

Probabilistic. Watching a well’s production volumes come in can be a lot like tracking the line a pinball cuts in a pinball machine – it goes up, down, down some more, up again, sideways … there are tons of possible scenarios. So, the full range of production possibilities – P1 to P99 – should be generated for each well. One scenario – say, a P50 – just doesn’t tell the whole story.

Unbiased. When production forecasts are produced manually, bias is naturally introduced to the process because different people choose different coefficients as they try to make the forecast curve “fit” the historical production curve. This bias is eliminated when automated forecasts are employed, giving you “impartial” and reliable information upon which to base your reserves, production surveillance, economics, operations, and marketing decisions.

And now the exclamation point: When you and your teams are armed with every possible production scenario, you can create rules, on a well-by-well basis, that trigger alarms and tasks when predefined events – when production dips below the P90 curve, for example – occur.

Think about that for a second: on a well-by-well basis. That means you can keep each and every one of your wells, whether your company has dozens or tens of thousands of them, optimized at all times.

Continually learning, improving, and operating at the highest level possible.

Ready for that promotion?

Optimize Your Production Operations Microsite

Optimize Your Production Operations
Looking to optimize all aspects of your production operations? Check out the resources on our production microsite, which contains videos, case studies, white papers, and everything else you need to achieve operational excellence.

About The Author
Alex Schultz works on P2’s corporate marketing and communications team. Prior to coming on board at P2, Alex worked as a news and sports reporter in California’s San Joaquin Valley, where he covered everything from local politics and citrus farming to college baseball and senior slowpitch softball leagues. When he’s not writing about the innovative and resilient upstream oil and gas community for P2, you’ll likely find Alex in one of two places: at Folsom Field in Boulder, CO, watching (and usually regretting his decision immediately) a University of Colorado football game, or trying (and usually failing) to hook a rainbow trout from one of Colorado’s mountain streams. Alex holds a bachelor’s degree in journalism from CU-Boulder.

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